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Amateur epidemiology update

  • Nov. 4th, 2009 at 12:26 AM

This is where we talk about what I enjoy as a hobby and did NOT enjoy as a career: epi!

Specifically, I've got three interesting graphics about H1N1 to talk about. Let's go!

Here's a picture of the flu viruses circulating in the world right now. The aqua is proportion of H1N1, the purple is seasonal (other) flu. You can see H1N1 dominating, this is because seasonal flu doesn't kick into high gear until January-February. Although in the Southern hemisphere you see not many cases, and a mix. It's not flu season there.



Here's a good picture from an article on eurosurveillance.org. (Reading from the article here:) the authors used a simple model based on the H1N1 data from the spring to predict a seasonal forcing of the flu peaking right about now. They predict about two-thirds of the population in the US will get the flu, but only a quarter will fall ill and the rest will be asymptomatic. How does this compare to the seasonal flu? I guess about 5-20% of people get the seasonal flu?

Their article predicts that vaccination won't come in time to do much good, which is interesting considering they were extremely optimistic in assuming the vaccination program would be in high gear right now, which it simply isn't.




Here's a great picture from the CDC of cumulative weekly hospitalization rates due to lab-confirmed flu cases. Click for bigger.

The red line is this year, the other colors are other years. The charts start in October at the left and move to April at the right. Going down are different age groups, which are affected in different ways by the flu. Note the rates are cumulative, so the lines go up and then level off when there are no new cases.



So what do you think? Are we in the peak of H1N1 now? Will mortality continue to be significantly lower than seasonal flu? Much ado about not very much in the grand scheme of things?

McNabs 2

  • Oct. 19th, 2009 at 10:18 PM

Some pictures from our trip:

We saw a fox! Many times. S/he was not shy.


More inside )

Oct. 4th, 2009

  • 1:27 PM

Re: Yo Rodeo Poster Sale going on today from 12-5 at 6557 Cunard (corner of Creighton)
SUPER SCORE! I got a 3D poster!

Third and likely final instalment

  • Oct. 2nd, 2009 at 12:08 PM

So an anonymous benefactor, actually I totally know who she is and she can identify herself if she doesn't mind, gave me a flickr pro account and THAT means I can inflict more pictures on you. Here.

Canals in Venice




Some more favorites behind the cut )

Oct. 1st, 2009

  • 8:37 AM

Woke up at 5 and made scrambled eggs + watercress (surprisingly delicious) and fruit salad. I could get used to this! I really hope my circadian rhythm has re-set itself to 'morning person.'

We have a load of venison in the freezer courtesy of my uncle so Ryan is making deer chili this weekend. I voted heavily for deer stew (parsnips and dumplings...yum) but will be content with chili.

Highly recommend listening to Edith Piaf as life movie soundtrack.

Part two of the trip now on Flickr.

PS Dear amazing photographers on my friendslist. I know you are there. If you have any tips for me now that you've seen a few of my vacation snaps - easy ways to make travel pictures more interesting that wouldn't impinge on your domain as artists - I would love to hear them. In composition, subject matter, or post-processing!



Some pictures I like behind the cut )

Sep. 29th, 2009

  • 9:39 AM

Last night I had my first French writing class. It was hard. The guy was like, "Write me two pages right now, then tell me your writing weaknesses at the end." Without Robert, Bescherelle or, most importantly, Yahoo Babelfish?

Listening to April March today I noticed her song Caribou has a lot of the French subjunctive mood. Ack. Also, calling anything in grammar a MOOD is just wrong.

Here's the first week of our trip on Flickr.


Venice - St. Mark's Square from the cruise ship. Note the mass of tourist humanity.



Some more photos I like behind the cut )

Interesting!

  • Sep. 9th, 2008 at 9:19 AM

http://www.gregpalast.com/obama-doesn%E2%80%99t-sweat-he-should/

In swing-state Colorado, the Republican Secretary of State conducted the biggest purge of voters in history, dumping a fifth of all registrations. Guess their color.
In swing-state Florida, the state is refusing to accept about 85,000 new registrations from voter drives – overwhelming Black voters.
In swing state New Mexico, HALF of the Democrats of Mora, a dirt poor and overwhelmingly Hispanic county, found their registrations disappeared this year, courtesy of a Republican voting contractor.

In swing states Ohio and Nevada, new federal law is knocking out tens of thousands of voters who lost their homes to foreclosure.

My investigations partner spoke directly to Barack Obama about it. (When your partner is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., candidates take your phone call.) The cool, cool Senator Obama told Kennedy he was “concerned” about the integrity of the vote in the Southwest in particular.
He’s concerned. I’m sweating.
It’s time SOMEBODY raised the alarm about these missing voters; not to save Obama’s candidacy – journalists should stay the heck away from partisan endorsements - but raise the alarm to save our sick democracy.

Science in action!

  • Apr. 28th, 2008 at 4:54 PM

This makes me very happy.

Giant/Colossal Squid Dissection Blog.

Brought to my attention by Moxieholic.

I don't really know my timezones, but the internet tells me we're 15 hours behind Wellington, NZ here in Halifax, which means right now (5:30) it's about 8:30 in the morning there. So they should be starting to dissect the giant squid soon. Tomorrow...the colossal!

If you want to follow along, many Squidcams are here.

Finalemente!

  • Apr. 25th, 2008 at 7:07 PM

A muxtape!

It's not exponentially better because it was weeks in the making: I'm just lazy.

Celtic Pets Seizure - SPCA Needs

  • Feb. 11th, 2008 at 10:04 AM

Hey everyone,

With Celtic Pets' animals still coming in to the Nova Scotia SPCA, I've heard that they are in dire need of quite a few items from their regular Wish List, including money, of course.

So far there have been two seizures from the Celtic Pets rescue, with 59 dogs and 71 cats in total taken from Zonda MacIsaac and her mother Alice MacIsaac. The animals were in pretty bad shape, many being kept in a sewage-encrusted basement, some with broken paws that had healed untreated. Three cats have been euthanized so far, all for having FLV. However, the vast majority are expected to survive and be placed.

This is one of the wishlists that I saw. Apologies to whoever posted this on their LJ, I can't find the original poster.

This is a list of items that are in demand to keep up with the care of all the animals taken into the care of the SPCA and other shelters from the seizures in Cape Breton this past week. Even the donation of one item goes a long way in making the care of these needy animals a little easier. Please find it in your heart to give whatever you can. Thank you.

* non clumping litter
* blankets
* towels
* laundry soap
* bleach
* Royal Canin cat and dog food
* toys
* beds
* scratch posts and climbers
* quality animal shampoo to suit both dogs and cats
* leashes
* collars
* Advantage
* kennels
* stainless steel bowls
and whatever else you can think of

Donations can be dropped off at the Metro Shelter, 5 Scarfe Court, Burnside Industrial Park.


I believe this is an album of some of the cats who will eventually be going up for adoption. Not sure about that, but I think so. You can only see it if you're on Facebook.



More information about the latest seizure here.

Have an ogrish Christmas!

  • Dec. 24th, 2007 at 10:19 AM

Something is lurking in the foreground of this merry Christmas scene.



What could it be? )

Burma

  • Dec. 7th, 2007 at 2:52 PM

I love writing letters. Anyways, awhile back, I wrote Alexa McDonough and Maxime Bernier (Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs) regarding the protests in Burma. I didn't hear back from either one, until today. I was delighted to receive a letter back from Mr. Bernier. In it, he details some fairly strong economic sanctions and other measures he tabled on Nov. 14. I'm not very good at deciphering politickese -- what do you think?

Dear Ms. Curry:

Thank you for your email of September 25, 2007, concerning the situation in Burma. I regret the delay in replying to you.

I share your concern about the situation in Burma and the safety and well-being of its people. Over the last months I have made several statements on Burma. I have strongly reiterated Canada's condemnation of the use of deadly force by the military and police against monks and other protesters in Burma who were exercising their right to peaceful dissent. I sent a Canadian diplomat to Rangoon to assess the situation and to show Canada's support for the democratic movement. Canadian embassies and high commissions around the world have been working with representatives of other like-minded countries to seek creative solutions and to coordinate our approach to Burma. In Ottawa, senior officials of Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada (DFAIT) called in the Burmese Chargé d'affaires to ensure that Canada's interest in this matter was clearly understood.

I have also called upon the Government of Burma to release all political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi. On October 2, 2007, I stated at the United Nations General Assembly that it was imperative to restore democracy and human rights in Burma. I invite you to view my news releases and statements on Burma at w01.international.gc.ca/minpub/ListPublications.aspx?isRedirect=True&PubTypeId=261&Year=2007&language=E.

On October 17, 2007, the Right Honourable Stephen Harper, Prime Minister, tabled a motion in the House of Commons to confer honorary citizenship on Aung San Suu Kyi, which was adopted by all party agreement. In doing so, he stated: " We must ally ourselves with those in the world who share our values, and especially those who are denied them.... The adoption of today's motion sends a message to her, her people, and the world, that Canada stands up for the universal values that are under siege in Burma today."

On November 14, 2007, I announced that Canada intends to impose economic sanctions against Burma under the Special Economic Measures Act in order to demonstrate Canada's abhorrence for the regime's complete disregard for the human rights and fundamental freedoms of the people of Burma. These sanctions, the toughest in the world, will:

*ban all goods exported from Canada to Burma, with the exception of the export of humanitarian goods;
*ban all goods imported from Burma into Canada;
*freeze assets in Canada of any designated Burmese nationals connected with the Burmese state;
*prohibit the provision of Canadian financial services to and from Burma;
*prohibit the export of any technical data to Burma;
*ban new investment in Burma by Canadian persons and companies;
*prohibit Canadian-registered ships or aircraft from docking or landing in Burma; and
*prohibit Burmese-registered ships or aircraft from docking or landing in Canada and passing through Canada.


Furthermore, a number of measures have been taken at the multilateral level to address this situation. At the G8 Foreign Ministers meeting in New York on September 26, 2007, I joined my counterparts in unanimously condemning the violence in Burma and calling for a resumption of dialogue. Canada continues to urge Burma's neighbours such as China and India to encourage Burma to undertake genuine reform.

On October 12, 2007, I issued a news release following the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) statement on Burma, which strongly deplores the use of violence against peaceful demonstrators and emphasizes the importance of the early release of all political prisoners and remaining detainees. Moreover, Canada welcomes the UNSC's reaffirmation of its strong and unwavering support for the mission of Mr. Ibrahim Gambari, the Secretary-General's Special Envoy to Burma, as well as its recognition of the resolution adopted by the United Nations Human Rights Council on October 2, 2007. Canada also welcomes the efforts of Mr. Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, to address the situation in Burma, and has called upon the Government of Burma to facilitate his work.

Canada will continue to work with the international community to put pressure on the Burmese government to respect the human rights and fundamental freedom of the people of Burma, and engage in a genuine dialogue with the democratic opposition.

The promotion and protection of human rights is an integral part of Canadian foreign policy. Canada will continue to stand up for human rights and take principled positions on important issues to ensure that freedom, democracy and the rule of law, values that define our country, are enjoyed around the world.

Thank you again for writing and sharing your concerns.

Sincerely,





Maxime Bernier
Minister of Foreign Affairs

Calgarians ahoy!

  • Dec. 7th, 2007 at 10:24 AM

Via Boingboing: CANADIANS! Tomorrow is your best chance to fight the Canadian DMCA! Event in Calgary, national phone-in


If you're a Canadian and you want to talk to Industry Minister Jim Prentice about his proposal for a Canadian DMCA, a copyright law that's even worse than the ten-year-old American legislation that resulted in lawsuits against 20,000+ Americans without stopping infringement or paying artists, now's your chance!

This Saturday, Minister Prentice is hosting an open house in Calgary at his constituency office. This is the best chance we will ever have to make our feelings known about the Canadian DMCA. If you are in or near Calgary, plan on attending this event, along with local activist Kempton Lam...read more here.

Dec. 6

  • Dec. 6th, 2007 at 4:32 PM

I went to school in Montreal (in the Engineering building of McGill) from 1997. Dec. 6 has long been in my thoughts. The sheer UNFAIRNESS of male violence against women, in Canada and abroad (thinking of recent articles I've read on rape as a crime of war in the DRC), continues to strike me year after year.

[info]audrawilliams pointed out an galling article today. The National Post managed to drag up a woman to run through the usual Men's Rights canards this year -- get over it already, women commit violence against men too, misandry, this continued ceremony is divisive, etc.

You can read the article here, if you want. By Barbara Kay.

The really frustrating part about the article (and that it got published in a major media outlet, no matter how right wing) is that Kay's stupid. I mean, the article is poorly written and has several faults of logic, and it's just dumb.

But the gratifying part is that Kay quoted pretty much wholesale a Men's Rights author's fantastical version of an already sad crime -- a woman, Laurie Dann, shot and killed a young boy at a school as part of a rampage that ended with her killing herself. I was interested by the crime, never having heard of Ms. Dann before, and by Kay's version of her crimes: "A year before the Montreal massacre, this equally psychotic Chicago woman shot five elementary-school boys, poisoned two fraternity kitchens, torched the Young Men's Jewish council, burned two boys in their homes, shot her own son, and murdered an eight-year old boy, claiming he had raped her." Wow, what a man hater!

Turns out that's not the story at all, as you might expect. If it interests you, you can read about Dann here. Dann sounds like a pretty horrible person to know and I'm glad I never crossed her path, but they got it all wrong. So I got to write a condescending letter to the National Post this afternoon, and that pretty much made my day.

Shame on Barbara Kay for perpetrating outright lies in her piece 'The last white ribbon' (Dec. 6, 07). Kay must be a devotee of male rights advocate Warren Farrell. His oft-quoted false statements regarding the extent of Laurie Dann's crimes do not stand up to even the most elementary fact checking (cf. NYT " Police Still Unraveling Trail Left by Woman in Rampage" May 22, 1988 -- although Dann's Wikipedia entry may be more Kay's speed).

Contrary to Farrell's assertions (which appear to have been taken from thin air) Laurie Dann did not solely target males In reality, no child was raped, one male child was killed, no frats or Jewish Councils were burned down, and two male and two female children along with one adult man were injured during Dann's spree, before her suicide. Dann was clearly insane in the years leading up to her crimes, as a pattern of harassment toward both males and females shows, but she was not solely a man-hater.

Sarah Curry
Halifax NS


The lack of fact checking is outright embarrassing, both for Kay and the paper. So it makes me happy.

FASCINATING!!

  • Nov. 22nd, 2007 at 9:46 PM

Gary Taubes, diet doubter extraordinaire, was recently profiled on BoingBoing, following the release of his new book Good Calories, Bad Calories. Looks like a fascinating read. In it, Taubes takes on conventional wisdom about diets (low fat/high carb is killing us?) and exercise (doesn't make you skinny).

I mentioned a VERY well-written article of his that appeared earlier this year in the New York Times (Taubes is a frequent contributer), Do We Really Know What Makes Us Healthy? Spurred by the HRT debacle (turns out hormone replacement therapy is kinda bad for you--who knew? Sorry about that, hundreds of thousands of women!), Taubes takes on the primary epidemiological tool--observational studies--and offers compelling reasons why observational studies, frequently treated as health gospel, must absolutely be followed up by rigorous clinical trials. His primary evidence, of course, is that just about every piece of health advice that's emerged from observational studies has turned out to be utter garbage when put to the test.

Taubes is probably best known for his 2002 expose on Atkins (What If It's All Been a Big Fat Lie?). Turns out that Atkins, while I STILL can't believe it's very healthy, is VERY successful in getting adherents to lose lots of weight, fast, while low fat + exercise diets have never achieved any such thing.

So anyways, I was motivated to look up some more of Taubes' writing, and stumbled across this insanely long Guardian article about exercise...and how it doesn't make you skinny. I have to quote some of the more interesting talking points here, because it's such a fascinating read.

...The best they could say about the relationship between fat and exercise was this: 'It is reasonable to assume that persons with relatively high daily energy expenditures would be less likely to gain weight over time compared with those who have low energy expenditures. So far, data to support this hypothesis is not particularly compelling.' In other words, despite half a century of efforts to prove otherwise, scientists still can't say exercise will help keep the pounds off.

...The one thing that might be said with certainty about exercise is that it tends to make us hungry. Maybe not immediately, but eventually. Burn more calories and the odds are very good that we'll consume more as well. And this simple fact alone might explain both the scientific evidence and a nation's worth of sorely disappointing anecdotal experience.

...For the past 60 years, researchers studying obesity and weight regulation have insisted on treating the human body as a thermodynamic black box: calories go in one side, they come out the other, and the difference (calories in minus calories out) ends up as either more or less fat....And in the strict sense this is true - you can starve a human, or a rat, and they will indeed lose weight - but that misses the point....When we deprive ourselves of food, we get hungry. When we push ourselves physically, we get tired....

Our bodies, like all living organisms, have evolved a fantastically complex web of feedback loops...The key is that among the many things regulated in this homeostatic system - along with blood pressure and blood sugar, body temperature, respiration etc - is the amount of fat we carry. From this biological or homeostatic perspective, lean people are not those who have the willpower to exercise more and eat less. They are people whose bodies are programmed to send the calories they consume to the muscles to be burned rather than to the fat tissue to be stored...

...If it's biology, and not a lack of willpower, that explains why exercise fails so many of us as a weight-loss tool, then we can still find reason for optimism. Since insulin is the primary hormone affecting the activity of LPL on our cells, it's not surprising that insulin is the primary regulator of how fat we get...Because insulin determines fat accumulation, it's quite possible that we get fat not because we eat too much or exercise too little, but because we secrete too much insulin or because our insulin levels remain elevated far longer than might be ideal.

...As it turns out, it's carbohydrates - particularly easily digestible carbohydrates and sugars - that primarily stimulate insulin secretion. 'Carbohydrates is driving insulin is driving fat,' as George Cahill Jr, a retired Harvard professor of medicine and expert on insulin, recently phrased it for me...

This would explain the slew of recent clinical trials demonstrating that dieters who restrict carbohydrates but not calories invariably lose more weight than dieters who restrict calories but not necessarily carbohydrates.

Nov. 21st, 2007

  • 6:03 PM

Tonight:

MEGABAND 3!!!!!




Update: AMAZING! Although Nerd Army (with Double Dragon & Mario covers) could POSSIBLY have come close to being as amazing as MB3. MB3 definitely ruled when it came to true 8 bit MIDI authenticity, but Nerd Army had some KILLER shredding going on by TWO guitarists.

Via Boingboing, the BBC puts forth ten counters to the top ten arguments used by climate change deniers.

The most interesting remains: new Fed study in US shows moderately overweight people (BMI 25-30) have a lower death rate than obese, normal, or underweight people.

[info]ceramic_cat sent me this related NYT op ed, Chubby Gets a Second Look, by Gina Kolata as well, which has, as she said, many interesting factoids.


It's been a good week for science journalism!*

*And a bad week for junk science!

OneMatch

  • Oct. 26th, 2007 at 2:05 PM

Today, I signed up to be a bone marrow/stem cell donor through Canadian Blood Services' OneMatch registry. I haven't gone in for the blood tests, but I'm pretty excited. Basically, you get tissue typed through a blood test, then if they have anyone in need who matches you (could be in one year, could be ten years, could be never) they will contact you for further testing and donation.

There are two types of donation: in the first, less taxing, you get stem-cell-producing drugs and donate blood. In the second, you donate marrow directly from your pelvis or other long bones (under general anesthesia). I know it hurts, but it apparently is not TOO bad...and certainly not as much as losing a your life to leukemia. It's FREE to register and free to donate, so please consider registering. It's a great mitzvah to save someone's life, as I read on one donor page.

How NOT to get hit by cars

  • Oct. 11th, 2007 at 2:02 PM

A cyclist was killed this morning on Barrington Street. It seems that he was riding on the sidewalk, swerved to avoid a pedestrian, swerved again to avoid a power pole, lost control and ended up catapulting into the side of a truck.

Riding on the sidewalk SEEMS safe to timid cyclists, but it is one of the most dangerous things you can do as a cyclist, for you and those around you. Drivers are NOT looking for you, so every time you cross a street, you are at high risk of getting run over. You're not in the flow of traffic, so you aren't alert to traffic problems. And you are invisible to drivers overtaking you, so if you end up in the street as this guy did, they have no time to react.

Plus, it is unforgivably rude and dangerous for pedestrians, who aren't expecting you, SHOULDN'T be expecting you, and who tend to stand and walk all over the sidewalk, as is their right. And yes, you can KILL a pedestrian by running into them with your bike. You don't think your weight on a heavy, tall moving object could seriously injure a toddler or senior? You're fooling yourself.

This is an excellent site someone posted on halifaxlocals...How NOT to get hit by cars. It's not about wearing a helmet -- that's only the first step. How to cross streets, how to pass, how to wait at a light. So many cyclists have no idea how to keep themselves safe. I'm an experienced and defensive cyclist in heavy traffic, and this page contained a lot of ideas I'm going to incorporate in my own cycling.

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